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Precise Estimates

On September 14, 2018 in notes • 1 minute read

When making predictions or assessments, vague phrases like “probable” or “likely” mean different things to different people. One person’s “probable” might be 60% confidence while another’s is 85%. This ambiguity leads to miscommunication and poor decision-making.

From Superforecasting, The Art & Science of Prediction, page 123:

Sherman Kent recommends the following language when dealing with estimates:

• 100%: Certain
• 93% (+- 6%): Almost certain
• 75% (+- 12%): Probable
• 50% (+- 10%): Chances about even
• 30% (+- 10%): Probably not
• 7% (+- 5%): Almost certainly not
• 0%: Impossible

This enables estimators to “think about thinking”, a process known as metacognition, making the forecasters better at distinguishing finer degrees of uncertainty, but can be met with many cultural difficulties.

Use this framework when making forecasts, conducting risk assessments, or communicating strategic uncertainty. The precision forces clearer thinking and more honest communication about what you actually know.